Cui bono?

honor hominesque honesti floreant

Category: smoking


It is always a pleasure to receive a contribution from our principal financial supporter, (Baron) Malory von Hollenberg, and we are consequently delighted to present his thoughts in this piece sent from his current location in Australia.

I have been ruminating on the use of warning signs and pictures. These days a good many governments compel cigarette companies to print warning notices on packs of their cigarettes, often with an alarming picture of the physiological damage that can be caused by the habit. This is a convenient way for governments to balance two obligations. As guardians of their country’s inhabitants they have a responsibility obvious to all, except the occasional Minister of Health, to try to keep them in the best possible physical condition. There is in any case no point in holding would-be invaders at bay by purchasing all available modern weaponry if your well-defended citizens are too feeble or sick to keep the economic wheels humming in the manner you require. One might therefore expect governments to ban the sale of cigarettes. But governments also have a duty to keep their own accounts in the best possible financial health. As it happens, this too they could do by banning cigarettes, but only on condition that they could extract large amounts of money from the massive illegal trade in cigarettes which would be certain to arise, and which within a few years might exercise more influence on the workings of society than do the existing tobacco companies. In principle this source of funds should be within reach.   Direct taxation of course would be politically embarrassing, even though one concedes that political self-contradiction is an electoral advantage when judiciously managed. However, a better option could be to impose severe fines on traders arrested, while taking care that arrests are not so frequent as to hamper their activities seriously; gaol terms should seldom be imposed, so that traders can resume their activities at an early date. A somewhat similar approach, learned from financial regulators, would repress the illegality with a light touch, but would tax heavily all manner of associated activities and objects and locales. (American experiences during Prohibition could be helpful) . However, in practice few countries have successfully managed any such policies on a large and consistent scale, and even where this is claimed it appears any money accrued may have gone to individuals associated with the political class instead of the coffers of the state.

            The fact remains: repellent pictures of sick smokers, or body parts of sick smokers, do appear on cigarette packets, aiming to reduce bad health among consumers. Since they are a form of advertising and since we have been repeatedly assured (by those who make money from it, but also by other experts, e.g. Paul Josef Goebbels) that advertising ‘works’, we accept the case. But then one must ask ‘Why only cigarettes? Why not pictures of the horrid results of consumption of tobacco’s noxious social twin, alcohol?’ The initial objection, that the result of the cigarette may be a spasm of wrenching coughing whereas consuming alcohol may lead on to a jolly party, is specious irrelevance. In the first place governments are interested in long-term effects (provided that the issue does not concern the next election), and, second, subversives will remark that there seem to be two different types of long-term alcohol consumption; one can lead to sitting on a narrow bench in the back room of a small pub in Cork at the age of 22, rocking slowly backwards and forwards, drunk to the point of incoherence at six in the evening, while the other sets you up as a rosy-faced white-haired old man with twinkling blue eyes, surrounded by twenty-somethings begging to hear about your adventures in times long ago. Common decency suggests we should make at least some attempt to shock those of the former tendency out of their licensed premisses. Perhaps then the warning pictures should somehow be attached not to the bottles and cans but to the drinkers themselves. Doubtless modern technology could make this possible, indeed very likely has already done so in the case of individuals suspected by the spooks of membership of UKIP or other sinister tendencies. This could prompt self-questioning every time they look into a mirror. However such an intrusion of the state into supposedly private life cannot be openly introduced in the present era of lip service to individual human rights.   A few years have to pass before what is technically possible turns into what has been judged necessary for the prevention of crime and the efficient functioning of the caring welfare state. So for the present we must allow the governments to perpetuate, by failing to state the contrary, the fiction that alcohol only causes problems when in contact with a steering wheel (a combination which is supposed to be avoided by erecting signs saying ‘Don’t drink and drive’ in Times New Roman and a schoolmasterly voice, in places where they can easily be seen, by an alert driver).

            The fact that special circumstances (I hope I will not be understood as referring specifically to the donations of the brewers to political parties) can restrict the use of pictures warning about troubles resulting from contact with psychoactive substances does not mean that efforts should not be made elsewhere. For instance, the car itself is a conspicuous element among the temptations luring misguided consumers towards ruinous outcomes, and here as so often reformers are up against the forces of darkness actively reinforcing the allure with meretricious counter-advertisements. Cars are claimed to have strange powers. Buy this car and not only will it make you younger and stronger, it will come with a languorous femme fatale strategically attached to the hood [subject to availability; alternative gender-neutral offer: young attractive partner and two children, all in perfect health and grinning like successful footballers]. Moreover you are implicitly assured you will find all other drivers – all other road users, in fact – have disappeared from the roads. There are drawbacks, admittedly; the immaculate highway along which you speed in smooth isolation, outdistancing a low-flying airliner breaking all rules of air traffic control, is evidently located in a magnificent but remote and uninhabited terrain, possibly on Spitzbergen. In the face of such blandishments, consumers certainly should be provided with pictorial warnings against the temptation to acquire a car. Many of the inconveniences are well known, from faulty windshield wipers to lengthy gaol terms but what is seldom fully realised is the size of the car’s contribution to stress in modern life. All the worry of buying and fuelling and maintaining and repairing the thing and of dealing with the various human enemies one meets in these battles; the frustration of the steady guerilla warfare needed to keep it insured and officially recognised by the state; the exploration day by day of the frontiers of irrational behaviour among other motorists on your way to work. Above all though, there is the anguish, almost never admitted consciously, of voluntarily shutting oneself into a metal box even smaller than the punishment cells the communists used in Czechoslavakia. Even for a ten minute trip to the shops it would bring a nervous breakdown if you allowed yourself to think about it. For the daily two-hour traffic jam, if handed down by a judge, it would amount to cruel and unusual punishment. Of course the warning pictures on the car will have the advantage that they will be on the car itself unlike the allegedly seductive visual encouragements to buy the things. Themes for pictorial warning notices will obviously be legion, and perhaps inexpensive if cut-price deals can be cut with the sort of television channels that make disastrous car smashes a prominent feature of their broadcasts.

            The regrettable truth is that modern civilisation is replete with aspects threatening physical injury, financial loss, and moral decay to misguided consumers, and the UN has a duty to launch a world-wide multifaceted campaign of warnings against all these factors. It could begin by dealing with the food we eat, or, to be more precise, with unhealthy eating habits. For around 700 million on the planet there is a single unhealthy eating habit which is simply taking no food (almost invariably an involuntary condition) so in their case it is not easy to see where one might attach the warning notices; and in any case it is questionable whether many of those 700 million could truly be counted as bona fide members of the consumerat. But what worries many of the other 6.3 billion is the continuing struggle against obesity, and so the type of picture required is easily settled – some vast balloon of sweating humanity fighting its bulk into or out of an airline economy class seat would do nicely as a first example The laws about pictorial warnings in this category will have to be especially forceful, just to elbow their way past the existing mountains of colourful encouragements to believe that eating this or that package’s mixture of highly saturated fats and sugars and 21 kinds of chemical unknown to science until a few weeks ago will be good for consumers (and make them slimmer, and more beautiful, and charming; and if the consumer is a man his hair may grow back, too).

            But the truth is that we have done no more than hint at the vast array of threats to the innocent consumer. Many other scourges of society need to be fenced off behind warning notices – social media, muzak, bad grammar, football, computer passwords, gardening, and many more. A plethora of warnings is needed and naturally for some the devising of visual warnings will be easy, for others difficult. The time is ripe for a new Hieronymus Bosch to show what he can do.

Another mixed bag

1) Pussy trio  2) political promises  3) can smoking benefit health? 4) eliminating malaria carefully           Next distribution remains scheduled for 31st August


note to Daily Mail journalists in Great Britain: it has been discovered that two dietary supplements, Acetyl-L-Carnitine and Lipoic Acid produce greater activity and significant improvements in memory when administered to rodents.


Unpopular news: A public opinion poll in Russia taken before the verdict in the trial of the Pussy Riot trio found that two-thirds of those polled wanted the women to be sent to prison or to work camp.

Unpopular background, also little noted in western media: Their trial concerns a demonstration they made, which received much publicity in the west.  However this was their second, not their first, demonstration of the kind.  After the first no action was taken against them but they were asked not to do it again.

A consultant comments: Much harmful self-congratulatory fun can be had trying to impose one’s own view of how things should be run on other communities.  But at least those engaging in such an enterprise have more grasp on reality than those who simply assume that other communities do run on the same lines as their own


Editorial  (from Luddites’ Gazette)

As a child in the 1950s my father took me once to see the notorious Museum of Political Promises in Northern Italy.  The premises [I evade the wordplay lurking in ambush by the side of that sentence] were not attractive, set in a narrow gloomy valley between a pets’ cemetery and the crematorium of the local municipality.  The building itself was essentially no more than a large wooden hall containing piles of evidence of promises from twenty or more European countries, carefully stacked within intricately constructed racks devised originally for the records of Imperial China.  These allowed scholars to extract and replace any one document needed for examination without damaging any of the others.  In those days museums were not conceived as places to entertain casual visitors and although several spectacular promises were pointed out to us by a guide, including the actual paper bag on which Chamberlain drafted his ‘peace in our time’ remarks, we were not permitted to extract and marvel at any of them, which made our trip remarkably frustrating.  The whole place was filled with a strong pungent smell which one of the attendants told us was the consequence of treating all the documents except those that were already toxic with a preservative – all to no avail, since the whole place was burned to the ground in a possibly accidental fire just one month after Pella took over from de Gasperi.

  I have thought of that strange place several times recently, with elections recently completed in Russia, France and (to no advantage whatsoever) in Greece, and soon to come in America.  It is now many years since I regularly played Monopoly (and won) against young Nikki Sarkozy, at that time still clad in grey serge shorts, while my grandfather presided over a dinner table with presidents and prime ministers sitting jowl by elbow (some of them were indeed awfully uncouth in their table manners).  We later lost touch, but were I myself host to such occasions now then Nicolas might well be on the guest list.  Certainly not his successor.  Nicolas may be headstrong and unpredictable, but there you see a well-defined and vigorous character.  Hollande – did you ever see a man whose face and movements tried so hard – and let him down so badly – in the attempt to hide inner uncertainty and lack of command?  Tough as a young hedgehog.  A strategist in politics to set alongside ‘Crimean’ Raglan as a military commander [see note at end 1].  One of the clearest marks of his political inexperience – he never previously held any ministerial office, though between 2001 and 2008 he was mayor of Tulle, a town of some 15,000 known for the production of accordions – is that he has been trying to keep his campaign promises.  As one instance, the increased special allowance for children of school age is already being paid.  However, it is obvious that there is no point in making a campaign promise which you intend to keep, because you will only intend to keep it if your people have already checked the possibilities and found that it can be kept; in which case the opposition or at least its more intelligent components will already have done precisely the same.  The only campaign promises worth making are those that you do not intend to keep (provided, of course, that they look glamorous in the eyes of the electorate.)  When you break them you simply remark that the situation is no longer the same, though few will match the limpid elegance of the breach by Julia Gillard, leader of the Australian Labour party: ‘there will be no carbon tax’ during the election campaign (17-8-2010); ‘circumstances have changed’ as a carbon tax is introduced by her Labour government (1-7-2012).

1 Cf  N.F.Dixon   The psychology of military incompetence   Jonathan Cape   London   1976              (One of the funniest and most frightening books ever written by a psychologist; obligatory reading for anyone hoping to gather support for a military coup d’état)


Is the Gu Kailai who was seen on Chinese television walking into the court to be pronounced guilty the same Gu Kailai who was arrested in Chongqing and charged with murdering an Old Harrovian?  She looked remarkably different – younger, more like a countrywoman than a sophisticate, and plumper, none of which changes are universally observed in those kept in prison around the world.  Now it is not unknown in other parts of East Asia for a stand-in to take the rap in serious cases, in return for suitable compensation in one way or other, but in China, in a trial as widely scrutinised as this was, surely such a thing is inconceivable, apart from being of doubtful practical benefit to the guilty party.  Can anyone cast light on this puzzle?


A letter from Ms J.Borgia, who owns and manages a hostel in Castlebar for smokers released on parole from their prison sentences, (received yesterday along with a tax demand for instant payment of 1,000,009 euros from the Attorney General of an African country which as far as we can find out does not exist, and a pencilled note from the postman who is still complaining about intimidation by the guard dog despite being on the other side of the railings):

Madam,   In your piece (6-8-2012) about visual warnings on cigarette packets you seemed to accept the usual line that smoking should be banned because it is bad for health.  This overlooks the clear fact that a given element which is part of the cause of some harm may at the same time be part of the cause of much else.  Perhaps you will let me quote from a letter I wrote some years ago to the Ennis Contemplator: ‘we do not doubt that the cigarette smoke contains certain elements – hydrogen cyanide, for example – that are noxious.  However, if they are noxious to human beings it seems highly likely that they are also damaging to other organisms including some that are potentially dangerous to human health.’   One of the best known authorities on the effects of smoking, Dr Kenneth Denson, of the Thame Thrombosis and Haemostasis Research Foundation, who has published widely on the effects of smoking and given evidence to the parliamentary select committee on health, does not doubt the link between a tobacco habit and lung cancer, yet is on record as stating that smoking protects against Parkinson’s disease, breast cancer, cancer of the womb, pre-eclampsia, and Alzheimer’s.  He notes that a former holder of the greatest verified age for a man smoked until he died at 114.  It is a matter of common knowledge that Jeanne Calment smoked throughout adult life until medically advised to stop at the age of 117; she then died at 122.  Moreover, it appears that the proportion of medical staff who smoke may be above that in the general population.  Certainly without intending any discouragement of those who want to break the habit, never mind urging them to hasten out to support the tobacco companies, have a look at  Surely the total effect of smoking on community health needs more investigation.

Juniper Borgia


  An unconfirmed report claims that following Obama’s warning that use of chemical weapons, by the Syrian government, might be taken as a reason for American military intervention, the minister for education, Saleh Al Rashed commented in a telephone interview ‘chemical weapons don’t kill people; people (but not the Syrian government forces!) kill people.


Among campaigns almost universally considered to be ‘good causes’ are the search for a vaccine against malaria, the protection of tropical forests, and the preservation of the rights and culture of the world’s few remaining nomadic tribes.  It is rather awkward that there is a conflict within this trio.  The ‘primitive’ tribes and the tropical forests on the whole get on fairly well together.  The damage to the plants and trees by the tribes is an infinitesimal aspect of what goes on in the forests, and while there is an estimate (also known as a wild guess) that falling coconuts kill some two hundred people a year, a large number of the latter are probably tourists wandering within a mile or two from their resort hotel.  But if (or when) malaria is eliminated, quite apart from the fact that it will be followed by a surge in the world’s population, especially in areas still much exposed to other tropical diseases, there will be a major increase in the extraction of their resources from the forests, and a devastation, all but genocidal, of the way of life of the remaining forest tribes as settlers from outside move in.  Careful thought needed here.

honor honestique floreant